| AMERICAN LEBANESE COORDINATION COUNCIL |
Lebanon: Past, present and future
Monday, 23 January, 2006
By Manuela Paraipan,
Ya Libnan Volunteer
Last year's parliamentary elections were significant for Lebanon. After decades of Syrian occupation, the Lebanese were finally able to
see the light at the end of the tunnel.
The goal was to build a genuinely democratic Lebanon, free of Syrian control. At that time many Lebanese from outside and inside
Lebanon were highly optimistic about the immediate future of Lebanon. But, soon they were to find out that democracy is more than
voting and that the regular tribal rivalries and back door brokered deals to serve the selfish interest of this or that party were back in
place. The fact that Lebanon has a confessional political system, with the Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims, Druze, Christians, and others
seeking a leading role in the new political environment, did not simplify the situation.
The Syrian withdrawal and the parliamentary elections had substantially changed the Lebanese political charge. The downside was that
the main political players did not change and the electoral laws remain of Syrian origin, thus discriminatory and not truthful to today's
reality. Also, in its long time domination of Lebanon, Damascus has a foundation of loyalists in all layers of the Lebanese political
stratosphere. The presence of such individuals generated instability and divisive rhetoric at a time when unity could have done wonders
for Lebanon.
While the Parliament and the Government changed, the President of the Republic did not. President Lahoud came to power on
November 1998, after Damascus's refusal to extend President Hrawi's mandate for a second time.
In 2004, Syria had pressured the Lebanese Parliament to amend the constitution in order to allow their close ally President Lahoud to
remain in power for three more years, despite having fulfilled the maximum legal tenure in his position.
At such a historic turning point for Lebanon, having Emile Lahoud, a pro-Syrian President while the nation moves on from a contentious
30 year occupation, is at the very least frustrating and dissatisfactory circumstance. Not a day goes by without someone demanding his
resignation; however President Lahoud stubbornly refuses to step down. The President's spokesman Rafik Shalala told the Associated
Press, that in spite of the internal and external pressure to resign, President Lahoud would carry on his responsibilities "until the end of
his mandate in 2007."
Despite Lahoud's desperate determination to stay President, there are quite a few names of valuable politicians who have already
expressed their intentions to candidate for the higher post in the Republic.
General Michel Aoun, fought against the Syrian presence and interference in Lebanon. He served briefly as Prime Minister and
President, before fleeing in exile, in France. He returned to Lebanon, after the Syrian withdrawal, but has since softened his stance
against Damascus. Aoun commands broad support among Christians, and has gained respect as a leader who favors a free,
independent, democratic and secular government.
Samir Geagea, a former warlord like General Aoun who was against Syrian meddling in Lebanon. Unlike rival Aoun, Geagea did not
leave and was jailed by the Syrian-regime in solitary confinement for 11 years as a result. Strida Geagea represented her husband's
Lebanese Forces former militia-now political party in last year's parliamentary elections, and lobbied for his release in July 2005.
Geagea recently criticized pro-Syrian protests for accusing America of interfering with Lebanon's affairs: "This is not interference," he
said. "The Americans are not imposing the appointment of employees or heads of certain apparatuses; they are not interfering in
forming governments or extending the term of the president; they are not disbanding a party and sending politicians to exile."
Nassib Lahoud, a distant relative of the President Emile Lahoud, and a former Ambassador to United States is a widely respected and
appreciated politician. His supporters praise him for being a moderate, someone who has sufficient diplomatic and political
experience to become a leader of Lebanon.
Nayla Moawad, wife of the former slain President Rene Moawad. She entered the political arena, as a Member of Parliament in 1990.
Since then she has won several mandates and now is Minister for Social Affairs. During the years she has proved to be an enthusiastic
promoter of women and children's rights. During my interview with Moawad last year, she struck me as a distinguished, very well
educated, knowledgeable and ambitious lady. While it is rare to have a woman elected as President, it is not totally out of the question.
Chibli Mallat, a prominent Lebanese lawyer, announced his intention to run in the next Presidential elections at a press conference at
the UN Correspondents Association in 2005. Mallat said: "Mr. Lahoud has lost all credibility and now that he is under investigation, it is
worse. We cannot find a single voice in favor of Mr. Lahoud in Beirut today." He added: "Let us all compete regionally, internationally,
on ideas, on achievement, on standing and then the deputies choose. What I would ask is for democratic governments to support the
process, and to support the quick exit of Mr. Lahoud."
Of great interest for the future of Lebanon is (or at least so it should be) the wave of young politicians, and the many young freedom
advocates.
Metn MP Pierre Gemayel is son of the former President Amin Gemayel and grandson of late Sheikh Pierre Gemayel, the founder of the
Kataeb party and a prominent politician. Pierre Gemayel is said to be a high caliber diplomat, and a skilled, ambitious politician who is
following the footsteps of his father.
Samy Gemayel is the younger son of President Amin Gemayel, and although not a politician he is an intellectual advocating for a free,
independent Lebanon. Samy Gemayel seems to be in search of a new political formula to address the current needs of Lebanon, and
in this respect the force of his message is proving successful in drawing national and international attention. The Secretary General of
the American Lebanese Coordination Council (ALCC), Pierre Maroun described Gemayel as "a nationalist with a greater cause, and a
fighter with a noble mission to accomplish". During my meeting with Samy Gemayel in 2005, he spoke with great fervor about his vision
of a prosperous free Lebanon. I did not expect such a high level of commitment towards Lebanon from a young man, in his early 20's. I
clearly underestimated Samy. With his charisma, bravery and sharpness I expect to hear more often of him, and of his activities within
the group, Loubnanouna or "Our Lebanon."
Another notable presence is that of MP Wael Abou Faour, member of Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP). He is an
ambitious individual, who started as a student activist, and then became the PSP youth coordinator, to later move to a position within
the party's political bureau.
Saad Hariri entered politics under tragic circumstances, after the assassination of his father, the former Premier Rafik Al Hariri. Shortly
after assuming the leadership position of the Future movement, he told the AFP agency, "I think I am merely a symbol for now. I need to
work hard in the coming four years to ... fill a little bit of my father's shoes."
Although inexperienced in politics, he is a tenacious businessman holding a graduate degree from Georgetown University in
Washington. He successfully headed Oger, the Saudi based firm of his father, one of the largest and most prosperous Middle Eastern
businesses.
Recently he proposed the creation of a youth government, a sort of a watchdog entity that would have the opportunity of closely following
the Lebanese government's actions. Hopefully this entity would also have the means of reacting to it. The idea belonged to the
assassinated MP Gebran Tueni, who was a well-known journalist and a constant critic of Syria's maneuverings in Lebanon. Saad Hariri
promised to further support the idea, in order to allow youths to actively participate at a decision making level.
The Shiite parties, Amal and Hezbollah also have young, resourceful and competent members, but they are not as visible as it should
be, taking in consideration that the old guard had enough time to prove its capabilities, and now it is the time to let others step into the
middle of the action.
Talking about the old guard, three (among others) of its main representatives are still very much in power, namely Walid Jumblatt,
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, and Nabih Berri.
Walid Jumblatt, is the famous and controversial Druze leader of the Progressive Socialist Party. Once a warlord and a Syrian ally,
Walid Jumblatt is now publicly calling for a regime change in Syria. His opponents nicknamed him, "the chameleon" because of his
unexpected, often-sudden changes of political alliances and political discourse. Walid Jumblatt is certainly an unconventional politician.
Nabih Berri, is Speaker of the Parliament since 1992, former warlord, leader of the Shiite Amal Party and an influent politician inside
and outside Lebanon as well. He is a survivor who has endured political change by forming an alliance with the Syrians. He has largely
contributed to today's image of Lebanon. In the last eight months, he moderated his supportive rhetoric towards Bashar al Assad
regime.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is the leader of Hezbollah (Party of God), and of its militia. Under his command, Hezbollah succeeded to
drive Israel out of Lebanon, giving the party huge respect and credibility on the street in Lebanon. Unfortunately, Sheikh Nasrallah has
made the victory more about his own militia than the Lebanese people. To this day, Hezbollah completely controls the South of
Lebanon. Everything related to Hezbollah's militia is pretty much peculiar. When Germany brokered a prisoner exchange in 2004, it
was between Israel and Hezbollah, not Israel and Lebanon, as one would expect such a deal to take place between governments.
Regardless of the circumstances, Hezbollah has refused to disarm, as the UN resolution 1559 and a majority of Lebanese ask them to.
While many political parties and politicians have looked for opportunities for an independent Lebanon, Hezbollah has remained a
staunch ally of Syria, and has succeeded to partially isolate itself in the process. In March 2005 when thousands gathered to protect
against Damascus interference in Lebanon, Hezbollah found appropriate to distance itself from the rest of the Lebanese. Later on, it
organized its own gathering, in support of Syria. Most recently Hezbollah staged a protest during the visit of the deputy U.S. Secretary
of State just days ago. Prime Minister Siniora accused the militia of inciting violence by hurling rocks and stones at riot police, leading
to the serious injury of seven Lebanese policemen.
The international or national laws, for that matter are not made for Hezbollah to respect. While many disagree with Sheikh Nasrallah's
agenda, his continuous social support of his constituency in the south of Lebanon deserves recognition and respect. However, he has
done little to politically enforce and modernize its own party. Professor Habib Malek, said the following about Hezbollah's ideology: "I
think they may have realized that without this business [resistance], their ideology is completely bankrupt. It offers no answer to the
challenges of modernity, in order to attract the youth in a free, pluralistic society. What really scares them is not the US or Israel but
having to operate in an environment where their youth will have all the other options."
The chain of assassinations overclouded the process of reshaping Lebanon's democracy. Many suspect that the killings have been
commanded by Syria, in the fashion of any dictatorship entity that sees itself above all, and acts accordingly. The Reform Party of Syria
(RPS) has signaled repeatedly that although obligated to implement the UN Security Council resolutions 1546, 1559, 1595, 1636, and
1644, Damascus regime declined to do so.
The ex-Vice President of Syria, Abdul Halim Khaddam appeared on Al-Arabiya TV on December 30, 2005 to condemn and accuse
the regime of President Assad for the tragedies that happened in Lebanon in the last year. Specifically, Khaddam said that Assad has
indeed threatened Rafik Hariri, thus implying that Bashar Assad may know more than he is willing to recognize about this case. This
marks the first time that a high-ranking Syrian official goes public with such valuable information's in support of Detlev Mehlis'
preliminary reports conclusions. In this context, Khaddam becomes a key witness in the UN investigation, and the highest-ranking
Baathist official to turn against the regime.
The United States and France are closely monitoring Damascus regime. There is much pressure put on President Assad to cooperate
with the international community, but not too many encouraging signs from Damascus. Some are saying that Syria needs a regime
change, preferably through a home-bred revolution; others believe that it is enough to impose strong sanctions on Syria, and the third
group is advocating the toppling of the Baath Syrian system, in the fashion of Iraq.
Taking in consideration that Iraq is a young, yet unstable democracy, and the dangerous moves of the Iranian mullahs, it is unlikely
(though, not impossible) to see the United States opening another front with Syria. Most would like to see a smooth transition from
dictatorship to liberal, western style democracy, or to some sort of Arab style democracy.
The Lebanese parties, Christian, Muslim or Druze, should rise above the usual tribal interests or hidden agendas, and form a united
front against Syrian aggressiveness, and moreover demand that Syria be held responsible for its wrongdoings. While the U.N., United
States and France can assist the Lebanese in doing so, it is essential that a joint condemnation come from within. Bilal Sharara, the
Secretary General of the Foreign Affairs Parliamentary Commission said that, "We, do not need a [made in U.S.] or made in [France]
solution; we need a Lebanese solution to our problems." He is right. All we can do now is wait and hope that the Lebanese will take
advantage of the rather rare and invaluable opportunity at this critical crossroads. It is simply a question of desire to progress or
regress.
Original Source: Ya Libnan
Monday, 23 January, 2006
By Manuela Paraipan,
Ya Libnan Volunteer
Last year's parliamentary elections were significant for Lebanon. After decades of Syrian occupation, the Lebanese were finally able to
see the light at the end of the tunnel.
The goal was to build a genuinely democratic Lebanon, free of Syrian control. At that time many Lebanese from outside and inside
Lebanon were highly optimistic about the immediate future of Lebanon. But, soon they were to find out that democracy is more than
voting and that the regular tribal rivalries and back door brokered deals to serve the selfish interest of this or that party were back in
place. The fact that Lebanon has a confessional political system, with the Sunni Muslims, Shiite Muslims, Druze, Christians, and others
seeking a leading role in the new political environment, did not simplify the situation.
The Syrian withdrawal and the parliamentary elections had substantially changed the Lebanese political charge. The downside was that
the main political players did not change and the electoral laws remain of Syrian origin, thus discriminatory and not truthful to today's
reality. Also, in its long time domination of Lebanon, Damascus has a foundation of loyalists in all layers of the Lebanese political
stratosphere. The presence of such individuals generated instability and divisive rhetoric at a time when unity could have done wonders
for Lebanon.
While the Parliament and the Government changed, the President of the Republic did not. President Lahoud came to power on
November 1998, after Damascus's refusal to extend President Hrawi's mandate for a second time.
In 2004, Syria had pressured the Lebanese Parliament to amend the constitution in order to allow their close ally President Lahoud to
remain in power for three more years, despite having fulfilled the maximum legal tenure in his position.
At such a historic turning point for Lebanon, having Emile Lahoud, a pro-Syrian President while the nation moves on from a contentious
30 year occupation, is at the very least frustrating and dissatisfactory circumstance. Not a day goes by without someone demanding his
resignation; however President Lahoud stubbornly refuses to step down. The President's spokesman Rafik Shalala told the Associated
Press, that in spite of the internal and external pressure to resign, President Lahoud would carry on his responsibilities "until the end of
his mandate in 2007."
Despite Lahoud's desperate determination to stay President, there are quite a few names of valuable politicians who have already
expressed their intentions to candidate for the higher post in the Republic.
General Michel Aoun, fought against the Syrian presence and interference in Lebanon. He served briefly as Prime Minister and
President, before fleeing in exile, in France. He returned to Lebanon, after the Syrian withdrawal, but has since softened his stance
against Damascus. Aoun commands broad support among Christians, and has gained respect as a leader who favors a free,
independent, democratic and secular government.
Samir Geagea, a former warlord like General Aoun who was against Syrian meddling in Lebanon. Unlike rival Aoun, Geagea did not
leave and was jailed by the Syrian-regime in solitary confinement for 11 years as a result. Strida Geagea represented her husband's
Lebanese Forces former militia-now political party in last year's parliamentary elections, and lobbied for his release in July 2005.
Geagea recently criticized pro-Syrian protests for accusing America of interfering with Lebanon's affairs: "This is not interference," he
said. "The Americans are not imposing the appointment of employees or heads of certain apparatuses; they are not interfering in
forming governments or extending the term of the president; they are not disbanding a party and sending politicians to exile."
Nassib Lahoud, a distant relative of the President Emile Lahoud, and a former Ambassador to United States is a widely respected and
appreciated politician. His supporters praise him for being a moderate, someone who has sufficient diplomatic and political
experience to become a leader of Lebanon.
Nayla Moawad, wife of the former slain President Rene Moawad. She entered the political arena, as a Member of Parliament in 1990.
Since then she has won several mandates and now is Minister for Social Affairs. During the years she has proved to be an enthusiastic
promoter of women and children's rights. During my interview with Moawad last year, she struck me as a distinguished, very well
educated, knowledgeable and ambitious lady. While it is rare to have a woman elected as President, it is not totally out of the question.
Chibli Mallat, a prominent Lebanese lawyer, announced his intention to run in the next Presidential elections at a press conference at
the UN Correspondents Association in 2005. Mallat said: "Mr. Lahoud has lost all credibility and now that he is under investigation, it is
worse. We cannot find a single voice in favor of Mr. Lahoud in Beirut today." He added: "Let us all compete regionally, internationally,
on ideas, on achievement, on standing and then the deputies choose. What I would ask is for democratic governments to support the
process, and to support the quick exit of Mr. Lahoud."
Of great interest for the future of Lebanon is (or at least so it should be) the wave of young politicians, and the many young freedom
advocates.
Metn MP Pierre Gemayel is son of the former President Amin Gemayel and grandson of late Sheikh Pierre Gemayel, the founder of the
Kataeb party and a prominent politician. Pierre Gemayel is said to be a high caliber diplomat, and a skilled, ambitious politician who is
following the footsteps of his father.
Samy Gemayel is the younger son of President Amin Gemayel, and although not a politician he is an intellectual advocating for a free,
independent Lebanon. Samy Gemayel seems to be in search of a new political formula to address the current needs of Lebanon, and
in this respect the force of his message is proving successful in drawing national and international attention. The Secretary General of
the American Lebanese Coordination Council (ALCC), Pierre Maroun described Gemayel as "a nationalist with a greater cause, and a
fighter with a noble mission to accomplish". During my meeting with Samy Gemayel in 2005, he spoke with great fervor about his vision
of a prosperous free Lebanon. I did not expect such a high level of commitment towards Lebanon from a young man, in his early 20's. I
clearly underestimated Samy. With his charisma, bravery and sharpness I expect to hear more often of him, and of his activities within
the group, Loubnanouna or "Our Lebanon."
Another notable presence is that of MP Wael Abou Faour, member of Walid Jumblatt's Progressive Socialist Party (PSP). He is an
ambitious individual, who started as a student activist, and then became the PSP youth coordinator, to later move to a position within
the party's political bureau.
Saad Hariri entered politics under tragic circumstances, after the assassination of his father, the former Premier Rafik Al Hariri. Shortly
after assuming the leadership position of the Future movement, he told the AFP agency, "I think I am merely a symbol for now. I need to
work hard in the coming four years to ... fill a little bit of my father's shoes."
Although inexperienced in politics, he is a tenacious businessman holding a graduate degree from Georgetown University in
Washington. He successfully headed Oger, the Saudi based firm of his father, one of the largest and most prosperous Middle Eastern
businesses.
Recently he proposed the creation of a youth government, a sort of a watchdog entity that would have the opportunity of closely following
the Lebanese government's actions. Hopefully this entity would also have the means of reacting to it. The idea belonged to the
assassinated MP Gebran Tueni, who was a well-known journalist and a constant critic of Syria's maneuverings in Lebanon. Saad Hariri
promised to further support the idea, in order to allow youths to actively participate at a decision making level.
The Shiite parties, Amal and Hezbollah also have young, resourceful and competent members, but they are not as visible as it should
be, taking in consideration that the old guard had enough time to prove its capabilities, and now it is the time to let others step into the
middle of the action.
Talking about the old guard, three (among others) of its main representatives are still very much in power, namely Walid Jumblatt,
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, and Nabih Berri.
Walid Jumblatt, is the famous and controversial Druze leader of the Progressive Socialist Party. Once a warlord and a Syrian ally,
Walid Jumblatt is now publicly calling for a regime change in Syria. His opponents nicknamed him, "the chameleon" because of his
unexpected, often-sudden changes of political alliances and political discourse. Walid Jumblatt is certainly an unconventional politician.
Nabih Berri, is Speaker of the Parliament since 1992, former warlord, leader of the Shiite Amal Party and an influent politician inside
and outside Lebanon as well. He is a survivor who has endured political change by forming an alliance with the Syrians. He has largely
contributed to today's image of Lebanon. In the last eight months, he moderated his supportive rhetoric towards Bashar al Assad
regime.
Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah is the leader of Hezbollah (Party of God), and of its militia. Under his command, Hezbollah succeeded to
drive Israel out of Lebanon, giving the party huge respect and credibility on the street in Lebanon. Unfortunately, Sheikh Nasrallah has
made the victory more about his own militia than the Lebanese people. To this day, Hezbollah completely controls the South of
Lebanon. Everything related to Hezbollah's militia is pretty much peculiar. When Germany brokered a prisoner exchange in 2004, it
was between Israel and Hezbollah, not Israel and Lebanon, as one would expect such a deal to take place between governments.
Regardless of the circumstances, Hezbollah has refused to disarm, as the UN resolution 1559 and a majority of Lebanese ask them to.
While many political parties and politicians have looked for opportunities for an independent Lebanon, Hezbollah has remained a
staunch ally of Syria, and has succeeded to partially isolate itself in the process. In March 2005 when thousands gathered to protect
against Damascus interference in Lebanon, Hezbollah found appropriate to distance itself from the rest of the Lebanese. Later on, it
organized its own gathering, in support of Syria. Most recently Hezbollah staged a protest during the visit of the deputy U.S. Secretary
of State just days ago. Prime Minister Siniora accused the militia of inciting violence by hurling rocks and stones at riot police, leading
to the serious injury of seven Lebanese policemen.
The international or national laws, for that matter are not made for Hezbollah to respect. While many disagree with Sheikh Nasrallah's
agenda, his continuous social support of his constituency in the south of Lebanon deserves recognition and respect. However, he has
done little to politically enforce and modernize its own party. Professor Habib Malek, said the following about Hezbollah's ideology: "I
think they may have realized that without this business [resistance], their ideology is completely bankrupt. It offers no answer to the
challenges of modernity, in order to attract the youth in a free, pluralistic society. What really scares them is not the US or Israel but
having to operate in an environment where their youth will have all the other options."
The chain of assassinations overclouded the process of reshaping Lebanon's democracy. Many suspect that the killings have been
commanded by Syria, in the fashion of any dictatorship entity that sees itself above all, and acts accordingly. The Reform Party of Syria
(RPS) has signaled repeatedly that although obligated to implement the UN Security Council resolutions 1546, 1559, 1595, 1636, and
1644, Damascus regime declined to do so.
The ex-Vice President of Syria, Abdul Halim Khaddam appeared on Al-Arabiya TV on December 30, 2005 to condemn and accuse
the regime of President Assad for the tragedies that happened in Lebanon in the last year. Specifically, Khaddam said that Assad has
indeed threatened Rafik Hariri, thus implying that Bashar Assad may know more than he is willing to recognize about this case. This
marks the first time that a high-ranking Syrian official goes public with such valuable information's in support of Detlev Mehlis'
preliminary reports conclusions. In this context, Khaddam becomes a key witness in the UN investigation, and the highest-ranking
Baathist official to turn against the regime.
The United States and France are closely monitoring Damascus regime. There is much pressure put on President Assad to cooperate
with the international community, but not too many encouraging signs from Damascus. Some are saying that Syria needs a regime
change, preferably through a home-bred revolution; others believe that it is enough to impose strong sanctions on Syria, and the third
group is advocating the toppling of the Baath Syrian system, in the fashion of Iraq.
Taking in consideration that Iraq is a young, yet unstable democracy, and the dangerous moves of the Iranian mullahs, it is unlikely
(though, not impossible) to see the United States opening another front with Syria. Most would like to see a smooth transition from
dictatorship to liberal, western style democracy, or to some sort of Arab style democracy.
The Lebanese parties, Christian, Muslim or Druze, should rise above the usual tribal interests or hidden agendas, and form a united
front against Syrian aggressiveness, and moreover demand that Syria be held responsible for its wrongdoings. While the U.N., United
States and France can assist the Lebanese in doing so, it is essential that a joint condemnation come from within. Bilal Sharara, the
Secretary General of the Foreign Affairs Parliamentary Commission said that, "We, do not need a [made in U.S.] or made in [France]
solution; we need a Lebanese solution to our problems." He is right. All we can do now is wait and hope that the Lebanese will take
advantage of the rather rare and invaluable opportunity at this critical crossroads. It is simply a question of desire to progress or
regress.
Original Source: Ya Libnan
