Almost three years ago, we published this article hoping someone would learn something. It seems that we
thought wrong. We are republishing this article today with the title: History Will Repeat Itself in Lebanon for
No One Learns from it.
Will History Repeat Itself in Lebanon?
By Pierre A. Maroun
May 18, 2005
Reflecting on the post-Taef conditions following the 1975-1990 war in Lebanon, the situation appears to have worsened despite
the fact that no armed conflict has occurred in the streets of Beirut for over a decade. The mayhem that is being experienced
today is the result of the “culture of corruption” which the Syrian Ba’ath regime has introduced and incorporated into the
Lebanese institutions in the post-Taef era. Theft, bribery, deception, murder, rape, and embezzlement have become the norm.
The result is a social, political, and economic decay with public debts of $40 BILLION which the Lebanese people will have to
repay. It has taken 15 years of struggle at home and abroad, as well as the lives of many activists who were assassinated i.e.
Ramzi Irani, Pierre Boulos, and PM Rafiq Hariri and Bassel Flayhan with 18 others, not to forget the failed attempt on MP
Marwan Hamadeh’s life and the POWs in Syrian prisons, in order to expose the Syrians’ crimes against Lebanon. It necessitated
a million Lebanese men, women, and children to mobilize and march down the streets of Beirut to demand a change in the
status quo. Thankfully success has been achieved-Syria is out and its security regime’s agents are falling one by one everyday.
However, more work is needed before we can fully reclaim our independence, freedom, and sovereignty.
The first scheduled post-Syria parliamentary elections are supposed to be a powerful instrument through which the Lebanese
can oust Syria’s appointees in government and replace them with true nationalists. However, some charge that the over
zealousness of the Americans and the French have boomeranged, and almost derailed the Cedar Revolution of its national path.
Desperate to eradicate Syria’s influence in Lebanon and to disarm Hizbullah and other militias, they have ignored the fact that
under the current electoral law, the Ba’ath agents in Lebanon, including Hizbullah, will maintain the majority in parliament,
which will make it harder, if not impossible, to reform the institutions, to eject Ba’athists within the security agencies, and to
disarm Hizbullah peacefully through an Act of Parliament.
While these allegations have merit, there is more to the story than meets the eye. There are numerous reasons as to why the
French and the Americans are in a rush to hold elections on time instead of allowing the current parliament to take the time to
provide a new and fair law. For example, the French are eager to see change in Lebanon since they want a way to regain their
influence in the Middle East through Lebanon. This presence, if occurred, will protect the French and European interests in the
ME, especially after the loss which they have suffered financially as well as in terms of influence due to the US/British invasion of
Iraq and the ousting of Saddam Hussein. The French might go a step further by offering to provide peace keeping troops under
the mandate of a new UN resolution and under the pretext to help disarm all militias and secure the Lebanese borders as
mandated by the UNSCR 1559. While this is a legal way for the French (EU) into Lebanon, it will also serve as a helping hand to
the US war on terrorism, without forcing the EU countries to change their opposing positions on the war in Iraq. The EU peace
keepers may also help preserve peace and security in Syria given that the Ba’ath regime may collapse under sanctions or
through a coup d’etat, which is a great possibility.
On the other hand, while the US will benefit from the political and military support of the EU, it will also free its hands to redirect
its attention on the real issues i.e. fighting terrorism and moving forward with the road map. Accordingly, it is quite possible that
the US may widen its military mission in the ME to include the Gaza strip given that the Palestinian authority failed to secure its
area by restraining the activities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, as well as by establishing a lasting peace with Israel. In addition,
the Bush Administration which helped liberate Lebanon from the Syrian occupation is viewing the success of elections in Lebanon
as a victory for its policy in the Middle East. This will help President Bush boost his approval rate which has been dwindling since
his introduction of the Social Security reform plan has not been receiving wide support in Congress and in public opinion due to
the Democrats opposition to the plan. Moreover, the reason why the US is expecting positive results from the elections,
regardless of the flawed law, is that when the Saudi Crown Abdullah accompanied Mr. Saad el-Deen Hariri to meet the US
officials, which was a Saudi royal sponsorship of Mr. Hariri, he told the US officials that the opposition can win the majority of
seats in parliament under any circumstances and in any electoral law. However, he added, a law based on small district will help
bring radicals to the parliament, a source confirmed. Radicals are perceived by the US as people similar to Bin Laden and
Zarqawi. As a result, the US has favored to hold elections on time regardless of the bias electoral law instead of risking the
unknown alternative. Then they will deal with Syria's agents in different means. For example, let's not forget that there are an
International Investigation Committee which will have great affect on the Lebanese political life when it begins working; there
will be new cabinet outside the influence of the Syrian moukhabarat; and there will be many changes on all levels from the
presidency to the last post in government. All these and more will affect the balance of power in the country.
As a result, it is probable that the new map of the ME may eventually include a French (EU) mandate over Syria and Lebanon,
and an American/British one over Iraq. This will depend on the success of local governments, which are attempting to reform
their institutions in order to adopt democratic systems to satisfy some of the US demands. In post September 11, the US
Administration believe that it should no longer sponsor or support individual leaders. Instead, the US should support a system
based on democracy and elections where the freedom of citizens to choose their leaders is respected, protected, and
implemented. President Bush believes that this is the best way to eradicate radicalism, totalitarianism, and terrorism.
Accordingly, it is important for the Lebanese people to make sure that their leaders are not going to swim against the flow this
time too. Lebanese leaders should beware not to put themselves at odds with the International community as the Ba’ath
regime has done in Syria, which can be a suicide. They should not act in a way that will make the West perceive them as the
Moqtada el-Sader of Iraq who is trying to defy the international community by resorting to street rebellion; or as the Zarqawi
insurgents who are trying to block democracy and derail the peaceful transition of authority through elections. They should not
give the impression that they are the enemies of tolerance, co-existence, and democracy. In other words, they should not allow
the scenario of October 13, 1990 to be repeated in 2005 by failing to read the regional and international developments, or by
opposing the US policy of spreading democracy in the ME. Therefore, it is significant to note that while the current electoral law
is biased, corrupt, and will certainly lead to the cloning of the current parliament, the alternative, as Murphy put it in 1988, is
“chaos.” This is by no means suggesting that they should not protest, and or demand their rights. However, their action should
not reach a level of obstructing the elections, or to creating instability in the country, which will actually serves Syria’s interests
and Hurt the US ones. After all, these elections are not the end but the beginning of reforming the Lebanese institutions and
strengthening democracy which will lead to a prosperous future for all. Hence, the Lebanese should not commit suicide to get
rid of a headache. As President Gemayel said regarding the current electoral law: “We initially demanded the electoral law of
the 1960, but to no avail. Today, however, being faced with a bad situation (the law of 2000) and a terrible one (chaos), we
chose the former.” In other worlds, we suffered a setback but we're not destroyed, and when materialized, the spirit of March
14th, demonstration should result in more victories and hope, not despair and defeat, given that we preserve our unity.
Moreover, the Lebanese should not fail to notice that the Lebanon’s “FILE” has been removed from the Syrians’ hands and is
now being handled by the UN through the US ambassador in Beirut. This should provide comfort to all including the minorities
and those who were marginalized by the Syrian moukhabarat. In fact, it has become evident that the US and the French
ambassadors are going beyond the call of their duties to avoid conflict among the Lebanese by trying their best to help establish
a new order in Lebanon based on a “No Victor-No Vanquish approach. This may sound overoptimistic or an exaggeration, but
the latest altering of electoral lists is nothing but mere proof of the validity of this premise. In fact, instead of worrying, the
Lebanese should celebrate the remarkable achievements of success, which are freeing Lebanon from the Syrian and the Israeli
occupations, and secondly, elections without Syrians interference in Lebanon. Then, they should recognize the fact that this has
occurred first due to their unity after the assassination of PM Hariri and Falyhan, and secondly due to the American and French
pressure on Syria. Therefore, it is time for Lebanese to be less emotional, less theoretical, and more pragmatic, not to say
intelligent. Thus, in the upcoming elections, do yourself and Lebanon a favor-GO VOTE.
Long Live Free and Democratic Lebanon!
Pierre A. Maroun
May 18, 2005
Originally published on Published Orb standard World News
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